Tuesday, December 26, 2006

CROX daydreaming (trading)

CROX at $100 or something equally eye catching was the title of a thread on one of the boards I frequent. I couldn't resist and wrote back asking what made them think that Crocs could see a $100 by year's end? Awhile later someone put forth their idea, earnings of $2.50 per and a P/E of 40. That would indeed put CROX trading at $100 by year's end. Kind of fun just entertaining such a notion.

Just thinking about that possibility got me off the track of reality and daydreaming for a bit. At a $100 per share that would more than double my investment in a year. I'll take it…if you insist. Next thing I know I am calculating dollar amounts and already picking the next great stock to roll all of that money into. If I could double my money by December 2007 then again in 2008 (surely I can pick another winner… don't you think.) I would have a big O pile by this time come 2008. Perhaps not an eye popping amount for some, but at least an eye stretching sum.

With the market being closed yesterday my daydreams ran amuck for most of the day. CROX at $100 raced around and around the track in my mind. Around and around, compounding faster and faster, I only need one great pick every year that doubles. Then my money doubles EVERY year, seven years from now I could buy a NASCAR stock car. Or anything else that is equally worthy of my investment windfall.

Well the daydream came to a close at today's…um…close. CROX traded up a half percent to finish at the grand total of $42.33 (my investment is still underwater). A long way from $100, a long way from doubling my money every year for the next 7 years. But, the New Year hasn't even officially begun yet.

Have you ever caught yourself daydreaming about how a stock pick might turn out?

That's it for today. Focus on today, dream about tomorrow and keep an eye on your EveryDay Money.

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Anonymous said...

Sold everything, by mistake. Put order in to sell 2500 shares SNDK @ MARKET X-MAS DAY. Forgot to cancel. Flipp'n half on margin. F-IT. uSING IT TO PAY DOWN CASH ADNACES WHERE IT CAME FROM. 2 many druggies, drunks, for me to try and play a fixed market.

Game over 4 me.
Work next 60 years or untill I die. YIPPEEEE. Save,save,save,work,work,work

Best of Luck to ya see in the next life.

Grant said...

Daydreaming? Yep, been there done that. Then got thrown back into reality when my investment actually went down!

That's what "hope" does to a guy and his portfolio. A few instances of that will force you to eliminate the emotion.

Unfortunately I'm not a big fan of Crocs. I think they're today's fad that will turn into tomorrows mullet, a thing of the 80's. At it's current earnings, there's really little wiggle room for the stock. And let's face it, what is CROX going to do for a curtain call when their plastic slippers make way for a thing of the past?