Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trading. Show all posts

Sunday, May 20, 2012

Weekend Weigh In (5/20/2012)

So, this week sucked.  The markets just kept dropping.  It’s hard seeing everything falling and not doing something.  Perhaps I should be doing something?  I have thought about dumping some but haven’t.  And there were moments this week, when I thought about dumping them all but just turned off the computer instead.  For the most part I like what I have and believe that all will recover in time.  Here’s what I have right now.

Alcoa (AA):  Underwater and still waiting.  Next earning date is beginning of July.  I flip back and forth between selling when it recovers enough for a small profit and sticking with it longer term.  If I stick with it longer term it may recover toward that $15+ level.  I just don’t know if I want to have money tied up in it for that long or even how long that might be.  Let’s see how long it takes just to get back to good.

Aflac (AFL):  Underwater and pissed.  Here’s a perfect example of what not to do.  I bought this just before earnings, it jumped up and I was slow to sell.  Since then I have watched it go from profit to loss this week.  Stupid!!  Need to be better if I am to transition to full time trading someday.

Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ):  Underwater.  There’s talk this week that Meg is going to cut about 25,000 employees.  Looking back I should have passed on this one.  The company just has too much stuff going on.  And it seems that investors are just tired of hearing it all.  I am going to have to wait a couple of quarters for this one to get back to good, I feel.  I bought in that $25 range so it has some swimming to do.

Walgreen Co. (WAG): Underwater.  Walgreen dropped out of what I would call the channel of $32 - $35 range.  Have played this range before a few times and I may have pushed it one too many times.  I am really interested to see how it acts this week.

International Game Technology (IGT): Underwater.  This too I was looking for it to bounce back into that $17 range and it hasn’t done it yet.  So another one that goes on the wait list.

EXCO Resources Inc. (XCO): Underwater.  Still waiting for nat gas prices to go up.  They have been climbing some but I need them to keep climbing.  Still thinking about hanging on to this one and seeing if it might turn into a homerun down the road.

That’s it for this weekend.  I find it is always good to review where I’m at and the good and bad decisions that I have made.

Here’s to a better week than the last one and to keeping an eye on your Everyday Money.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Watching the markets sink and looking for things to buy

So today the stock market just started going down and took all the stocks I own with it.  Everything was in the red today.  It was a weird feeling watching things drop, thinking there goes some of my hard earned dollars and yet wanting the market to drop more so I could buy stuff.  Had some orders in but nothing got filled.  Was feeling margin good about some stocks but it wasn’t meant to be today.  Added some money to the account tonight so tomorrow if things drop a bit more I can buy without the margin. 

I have sell orders in for almost every stock I’m holding right now.  The hard part is just watching things go down days in a row with nothing to do but wait.  (And second guess myself.)  I’m happy with where I bought AFL, IGT, and AA.  Need all three to rise a little and I’ll cash out.  I see all three of these stocks as short term plays.  As for HPQ and XCO I was early by half and don’t really like my average price for either one.

It will take some time for either of them to get back to good.  Although XCO has come up a bit this past week, it still isn’t nearly enough.  I still think down the road nat gas prices rise and XCO becomes a big winner.  If it got back to its 52 week high then all would be forgiven. 

As far as HPQ, I don’t know what to think.  IF Meg can right the ship then the stock looks way undervalued right here.  I should be adding hand over fist, but I ain’t.  Even after all she’s done I don’t have that kind of faith in her or HP.  What I am willing to do right here is wait and see.  Not so long ago the stock was in the $40s.  I know a lot has happened in the past year, but still… $40s.   So I’ll wait and pick up a little dividend money along the way.

Here’s to buying stocks at prices that we still like days later and to keeping an eye on your Everyday Money.

Tuesday, May 08, 2012

Buy Time: Alcoa (AA)

So today was the day I thought yesterday would be.  Started in the red and people where jumping out left and right.  It was kind of impressive that we came back to being only 76 down on the Dow after spending most of the day way worse than that.  Tomorrow will be interesting to watch.  With today’s buy I am done for the time being until I can free up some cash.

About the buy.  Yesterday I talked about looking at a couple of stocks and that neither came down enough.  Well today I had my buy limit in at $9.15 for Alcoa and it went through about 10:30.  Aluminum price are for crap right now but AA bounces around enough that I think I can turn a trade with it.  It has been good to me once before.  This past December 23 bought at $8.90 and let it go on January 10th at $9.79. Looking for lighting twice, all I can do now is wait.  Above $10 and I am a seller.
The other stock from yesterday was WAG.  I have done a few round trips with WAG in the last few months and was interested in going again.  I was looking for under $33 but it never came.  Today’s low was $33.18 and it closed at $34.09.  Maybe another time, maybe a different channel.  Out of money right now anyway and don’t have margin level belief in Walgreens with all its headaches right now.  That’s it for today.

Here’s to getting in and to keeping an eye on your Everyday Money.

Monday, May 07, 2012

The Craziness in France Should have Gotten Me Some Stock Cheap Today

So after the election this past weekend I was expecting stocks to fall some today.  And some did... sort of.  I had my eye on two different stocks and had my buy limit orders in but it was not to be today. 

One of them was my own fault.  It dropped some right out of the gate and I thought it would slide some more.  I couldn’t make up my mind on a price that would make me all smiles.  By the time I picked a number it was above and never came back to me.   I don’t want to jinx it for tomorrow so I’ll let you know which one it is and the number I was looking for in a couple of days or so.  I’ll start with the buy order in same area tomorrow, only this time before the opening bell and see what happens. 

The other stock I have been around and around with the past few months and have made money on it every round trip.  I was hoping that it would come to me today.  Nope!  Again I’ll let you know in a couple of days which stock it is, just don’t want to jinx it.  I’m feeling that this one might not get down to where I want it to be for a buy but who knows. 

I am not sure what to think about this whole Europe thing.  The French pick a guy that says “let’s start spending again.  Screw austerity.”  Ok maybe that’s not the exact quote I read this weekend, but it’s kind of close.  Then there is Merkel saying “To bad buddy.  Congrats on the election but the deal is done and we ain’t looking to renegotiate.”  You know, something to that effect.  Maybe I should be looking to get to cash right now.  Are we on the edge of a correction?  For now I’m still buying if I can find a price that catches my eye.

Here’s to the Euro not collapsing till I can make a little more money, then get to cash and to keeping an eye on your Everyday Money.

Tuesday, May 01, 2012

Bought International Game Technology (IGT) Today

Even with the market going up and up today IGT spent the first half of the day in the red, just where I needed it to be.  A little history first; International Game Technology first showed up in a screen back in early February.  I got in at $15.75 only to watch it sag for most of that month.  I got out late March at $16.60.  For the most part I consider that a good trade for a month and half.   Now here we are in May and it is back to a good buy point again.  Yesterday I had a limit order in for $15.50 and missed getting filled by eight cents.  So this morning changed the order to $15.45, thinking it might trade down a little more.  So now I am back in and looking to trade this range back to $17 ish.  I may do $16.60 again.  Ideally if IGT can stay in this range I can get a couple of more turns out of it in the next few months.  Will let you know how this all turns out.

Here’s to familiar stocks coming back to buy prices and to keeping an eye on your Everyday Money.

Friday, April 27, 2012

Watching Amazon run ahead

Let me start by saying that Amazon (AMZN) doesn’t fit my parameters so I don’t trade it. For the most part I don’t really keep track of it either, except on those days that it runs up like crazy and it is all over the headlines. It doesn’t pay a dividend and that is one of my rules. No dividend, no trade. That being said it is still hard to watch a stock run 15% plus today and not be a part of it. Amazon reported good numbers yesterday and was up big in after hours and up today on big volume. I had thought about taking a flyer on it yesterday before the close. I have a kindle touch and buy stuff from Amazon. And I had a “feeling” that it would do well yesterday with its numbers. If you don’t recall I am trying to get away, far away, from trading on feelings.


So, on the whole I am glad I didn’t chase those feelings yesterday with a buy of Amazon. As I watch it bounce up today I have been trying to remember that it is all about developing solid trading tactics, the kind that make me money year in and year out. Flyers won’t pay the bills consistently. It will be those skills that allow me to transition to full time trading. At least this is how I am rationalizing missing a 15% move in one day.

If you bought Amazon yesterday and caught that big wave today, congrats! Have you jumped out after the 15% + burst or are you holding out for more?

Here’s to trading guidelines, sticking to them, and keeping an eye on your Everyday Money.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

The stupidity of adding to a losing stock position (XCO)

They say confession is good for the soul.  Well this one has been months in the making and perhaps overdue.
So the books I have been reading, for the past oh say… forever, say that adding to a losing stock position is a sucker’s bet.  It is the amateurs that try and average down into profits instead of cutting bait and moving on.  It sound easy enough but there are times I still have no mental discipline.  Such was the case with XCO.  On January 10th  2012 I bought a little Exco Resources Inc. (XCO) for $9.30.  (There has to be a bottom somewhere for natural gas prices, right?)  It kept dropping throughout the day.  The next day I threw more money at it, buying again, this time at $8.80.  The games our mind plays when trying to trade stocks.  And I thought my mind played games when I was giving up smoking.  The short of it is that once again I was trying to catch a falling knife without the mental discipline to do it half way safely.

Nat gas prices can’t possibly keep falling

Famous last words as the past months have seen the price plunge, to what I think, is an all-time low.  Natural gas quotes are now routinely near $2.00 .  Sub two dollar trades have printed enough that it seems almost common place and people are no longer shocked.  As far as XCO, it would have to work really hard just to be able to see it’s way out.  A short while ago it was trading under $6.   This position is so far underwater of my $9.00 breakeven, that it might as well be my own personal submarine.  It has recovered a bit in the last two days, just enough to give me the tiniest of slivers of hope that one day, some day it will come back to the surface.  Then again maybe it won’t.  I once thought that about Orion Pictures (look it up).

Long term take away
My goal is to one day have a pile in the trading account big enough to allow me to dump the day job and trade for a living.  In order to do that this kind of mental lapse has to be learned from.  Don’t add to losers… ever!!  Even if this stock somehow gets back to good I may keep it as a reminder of what not to do.  Well that’s it for today. 

Here’s to learning from our mistakes and keeping an eye on your Everyday Money.

Wednesday, April 04, 2012

Games my mind plays when trying to trade stocks

For the last couple of days things have not been great on Wall Street. Good!! I was looking for some stocks to pull back so I can get back in. Yet none of the ones that I track have pulled back to the point that I am compelled to jump back in. As I watched the prices bounce up and down today my mind started to play its games.

Should I change my buy price?

Maybe I should be tracking different stocks.

What happens is this is as low as it goes and then reverses and I miss out… again?

Maybe this is just the beginning of a bigger pull back and my buy prices are way too high.

I am going to feel like an idiot if this keeps falling for the next couple of days and I jump in too soon.

And the games and thoughts swirled through my head all day. And to think this is what I want to do full time in the future. Quite the day job and just trade. It seems like the perfect idea until my mind starts spinning on days like these.
Make the right decisions and it rains money. Make the wrong decisions and you get pounded. Simplicity defined.

Here’s to making good decisions and keeping an eye on your Everyday Money.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Learning to Use Something Besides Feelings with My Stock Trading

Awhile back with Garmin and Crocs and so many others I traded for the most part on feelings, headlines, and momentum of the stock. When the music stopped a couple of years back I realized I wasn’t as smart as my account balance lead me to believe. As I have reminded myself over and over, at least I didn’t run it to zero. It has taken me sometime to mentally be ready to start trading stocks again. But, stock trading is what I like to do. It is what I have always liked to do. I would do it full time, if I could roll up a big enough pile. Which is now the plan.

New Trading Rules

Before coming back I knew I needed something more concrete than feelings and headlines to trade on. My new guidelines are pretty simple.

1) All companies must be paying a dividend. If my timing is wrong and I have to sit on a stock I want some money while I’m sitting.

2) Companies need positive earnings. I know there are ways companies play with the numbers. I still want to see pluses not minuses.

3) The slow stochastic needs to be showing oversold or close to it. I have been learning to use this and hope to get a better feel as time goes on. So far it has helped keep me from chasing entry points.

4) Stock needs to be below their 200 day SMA. This seems to go against most books I have read the past two years. Most that I have read talk about following the trend, only buy when above 200 day, sell when it cross below. Don’t get me wrong I don’t want the stock to be trending down or falling off a cliff below the 200 day. I’m not looking to catch fall knives if I can keep from it. I want to find ones that have already dropped, stabilized (I hope) and are working on a comeback.

All of these rules are a work in progress. So far together they have kept me from chasing entry points especially the past few months with this big run up. Right now not a whole lot has caught my attention lately. So now I am learning to wait and do nothing, which is hard but that is for another post.

Well that’s it for today. Here’s to getting yourself some trading rules that you can lean on and as always keep an eye on your everyday money.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Kraft, Oreos, and Me

Two questions come to mind as I wait and watch for MO to spin Kraft at the end of this month. 1) Can Kraft come up with any more flavors or combinations of Oreos than they have right this minute? 2) Is there any money to be made by holding Kraft after the spin?

There is some kind of a societal comment to be made when I have to hunt just to find some original Oreos among a sea of Mint, Double Stuff, Chocolate cream, Chocolate covered, Mini-bite size and on and on, I’m just not sure what that comment would be. I found some originals; I’ll work on the commentary while I’m snacking.

As far as making any money, I still think that there is money to be made. It just might not be made right this second. Reading the message boards it seems that most have written off KFT and most are certain that MO share price will raise quickly. Watching Kraft the past few days I can see why most might feel that way. Today we were down 2.36% on super big volume. That troubles me some, but not enough to be selling shares at $30 plus change. I have too much Kraft food in my refrigerator for the stock to go much under $30 for very long.

When I get my Kraft shares I’ll sit tight and wait. Not sure what price would get me thinking sell. I just need a little time after the spin to see what’s what. The nice dividend they pay will help me wait. Here’s a guy that says we should be buying at these levels not sitting and waiting. He may be right, but I am still good with waiting.

That’s it for today. Here’s to not forgetting that the Original Oreos still have it and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Monday, March 12, 2007

Enron, New Century, and ADD moments

As I read this story about New Century’s collapse I couldn’t help thinking back to Enron. During their heyday both sat close to the top of their respective fields; Enron with energy trading and New Century with its boatloads of sub-prime mortgage loans. And now both destined to be homework assignments for future MBAs. What ties both of them together for me is that at one time they both caught my investment eye and almost my investment dollars.

I would love to claim that I had the foresight and investment acumen to duck investing in either but the truth is much simpler. Avoiding sinking money into them boiled down to old fashion luck and a few well timed ADD moments. Days before I was to jump on the bandwagon and throw money at Enron I got distracted with Exxon. Then in an ADD blink my money was headed to XOM and their DRIP, with Enron forgotten about till they made the nightly news with their meltdown. A few years back New Century seemed to be making money hand over fist. They had popped up on a stock screen and with a money sense of déjà vu` another bandwagon was going by. Once again my ADD sidetracked me with General Growth Properties (GGP). General Growth had likewise popped up on a screen, they just didn’t seem… I don’t know… as sexy as NEW. Well some how GGP got the check and I got another DRIP.

Sometimes, I wonder if I would have had the presence of mind to jump off the Enron free falling elevator or if I would have had frozen up and crashed to zero with it. Looking back at NEW’s chart I wonder how many felt the end near when it dropped from $30 to $20 in a day and sold? How many bought at $16 thinking there would be a bounce? How many still sit with shares bought at $60 back in ‘05 wondering what just happened?

I don’t wish anyone bad luck in the market, we all have to eat. But… with that being said I am more than willing to learn from other’s mistakes. After all it is alot cheaper and one day the ADD may not be there to save me.

Have any good “near miss” stories? I would love to hear them. E-mail me or add a comment.

That’s it for today. Here’s to near misses, ADD moments, imploding companies, and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

CROX is trying to drown me

Since earnings just a few weeks ago CROX has been caught in an undertow that has dragged the stock down over 20%. I can remember selling shares above $58; it is becoming a fuzzy memory as more and more down days get strung together. The shares that I do have left are totally underwater. It is starting to feel like I have been so far underwater for so long with Crocs that I should be growing gills. My average purchase price is just a touch over $51. The tiniest slivers of a silver lining are that I still have faith in the company and the stock. So for now I will wait and see if there is a run going into next earnings. Don’t get me wrong if we see $58 again before earnings then I just might call it a day. If I don’t sell the rest then at least I will throw in a stop, like I should have done the first time around.

With the way the whole market has been acting the past few weeks we all might have to work a little harder this year to make the returns that some of us have become accustomed to. For the past 2 or 3 years, I think, the market has made it too easy to make oversized returns. I have scaled back my use of margin, trying to get the account in a little more conservative posture going forward, just in case.

In light of the market’s behavior the past few weeks have you changed anything in regards to your trading?

That’s it for today. Here’s to understanding the market may actually go down. And to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

What an ugly day, but it was a buying one

The Chinese market falls off the cliff and we jump after them. What kind of sense does that make? It still amazes me when EVERYTHING on my screen shows bright red numbers… BIG bright red numbers. Let’s all be honest here, it has been awhile since we have seen anything like this. Today was fascinating in a train wreck have to watch kind of way. The thing that kept going through my mind was that something, somewhere had to be selling at a good price.

Philip Morris, my old friend, closed at $82.67. I believed in them at $85.50 just a few days ago, so today seemed like a sale price. I picked up some shares at $82.47 in after hours. Either you believe in your picks and you push money into the pot or you don’t believe. But you can’t make any money unless you are in the pot. Well for me in Philip Morris I trust.

That’s it for today. Here’s to keeping you margin amounts small and your decisions solid. And to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Monday, February 26, 2007

Crocs stalls, Philip Morris treads water

So… As I watch CROX drop some more I am thankful that I got out of the margin loan when I did. The pattern the last few days is a quick up at the open and then steady drop for the rest of the day. The shorts are all over this one. If the Yahoo board is any indication then EVERYONE is making money shorting Crocs. Well, everyone but me. Without the margin loan I have been non-pulsed the past few days with the drops in share price. It helps that even at today’s close of $52.06 CROX is still above my cost basis. So I’ll wait. I did try and sell some March 55s calls, but no one wanted to give me $1.10 for them today. Not sure if I will try and sell them tomorrow or not.

Big MO, I think, is stuck until the spin-off happens at the end of next month. Oh, it ticks up and down but hasn’t really went anywhere for days. If there is some kind of run going into the record date (March 16th) for the spin I might be inclined to sell, but it would have to be a run. I am thinking that it would have to be in that $95 - $100 range and I am just not seeing that happen, but who knows.

I am setting with plenty of margin ability and no place to put it. Would love to put it to work, just nothing I have come across looks too interesting. With the Dow having a rough time the past few days I am in no big hurry but don’t want to let a good trade go unnoticed either. Recently there seems to be more articles and talking experts opining that a correct is due. Is it that a correction is due or a case of group think or people just getting out in front with a little CYA in case something does happen or something else entirely? Perhaps a continuation of the “Big Guys” conspiracy to rip the shares from the “little individual investor” at rock bottom, panic induced prices right before “they” let the Dow return to its record setting ways? It couldn’t really be that…right?

That’s it for today. Here’s to not losing sight of the big picture and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Friday, February 23, 2007

Linus has a blanket I have Philip Morris

Off and on, over the years, I run back to Philip Morris and stick shares of them in my trade account. My shares of MO that have been running with the DRIP I have never touched or even really thought about selling. But the shares that occasionally show up in my trade account are just that, trading shares of MO. Like Linus’ blanket I tend to hold Philip Morris shares when I have cash and I am unsure what to invest it in. The comfort comes from having followed MO, through good and bad, for over 15 years. Well that and the nice dividend that seems to have the consistency of time itself.

So two days ago, after having cut half of my CROX loose, I went running back to Big MO. $85.50 seemed like an ok price to pay with the spin-off coming the end of next month. In the coming months I look for MO shares to gain relatively quick after the spin. Announcements of a big dividend raise, increase in share buyback or the international part being spun-off too could all help propel MO shares higher post split. At least I hope some of this stuff happens and the shares go up.

The shares of Kraft I get next month are the great unknown. They are in the middle of trying to right the ship and most anything is likely to happen post-spin. They could make headway in improving the businesses, sell some stuff, buy some stuff, who knows. So the plan as of right now is to wait and see. Unless something really bad happens or gets announced I look to hold the KFT shares for at least 3 months. Now if the shares run up 20% or more a month after the spin then all bets are off.

Another factor in how long I may hold either MO or KFT post-spin is how well my CROX are doing. CROX have had it a little rough since earnings release. I have them off margin so will sit with them a bit and see. I’ll let you know how it all works out.

Do you have a comfort stock that you keep running back to?

That’s it for today. Here’s to security blankets, consistent dividends and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Sold half of CROX position

Don’t get me wrong I would love to tell everyone that I knew today’s 3 plus percent drop was coming. But we would both know I was lying. The truth is that last night I didn’t have a strong feeling about what would happen when Crocs management started talking at 4:30 (Eastern). Not having a gut feeling makes me worry. I was fairly certain that Crocs was going to put up really big numbers (they did). My plan was to sell some when the shares spiked to $60. When the shares didn’t race to $60 before the start of the conference call I got spooked. The last thing I wanted was to see a chunk of my profits slip through my fingers. That has happened enough over the years that I could start a whole other blog just for those times. So I started to cash out. I sold 25% of my position early in after hours at $58.19, then left work. By the time I got home the price was in the $56s. With the price going the wrong way and $60 looking like a foolish daydream, I decided to sell another 25% at $56.58.

If I would have known that CROX would drop to $53.98 today I would have dumped it all last night. The good news is that the selling not only eliminated my margin loan but left me with some cash. (Average cost of shares was $47.15. Selling at $58.19 and $56.58 gave me a nice return. ) Not having a margin loan hanging around costing me money also gives me some options. The plan, right now, is to keep what shares I have for awhile. I still would like to see CROX at $70 plus. Without the margin loan I can afford to wait this one out, after all summer is right around the corner and that is when Crocs should haul in the money. I hope.

That’s it for today. Here’s to cashing profits when you can and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Garmin trade ends on a positive note

Not a bad Valentine’s present. This morning GRMN was going crazy in the pre-market, up over 10%. I put in a sell order at $60, but never got filled. I was a little worried that most of that upside would disappear at the opening but I was wrong. When the bell finally sounded my streaming quotes screen was hypnotizing. Numbers changed almost faster than I could see. After a few minutes of staring I shook myself into action. I put in a 1% trailing stop in order to try and capture a steady move up. No such luck, the bids and asks were just too wild. The stop moved up some then was triggered at $58.68. I could have done better with just a limit order at $59 but I figured it was worth the shot. It wouldn’t be one of my trades if some money was not left on the table. As I am writing this GRMN is around $56-$57 so jumping out at $58.68 doesn’t seem like too bad of a deal. (Looking back I am really happy that I called it quits on SNDK when I did. Freeing up that margin money and rolling it into Garmin has made the SNDK loss back and then some.)

Garmin reported that quarterly earnings doubled and the stock still dropped from today’s high. It seems counterintuitive for it to do so. We still have some time; it wouldn’t surprise me if GRMN got back to that $59 range by the end of the day. If it runs to over $60 tomorrow then I will feel a touch foolish…for a minute. I plan on keeping an eye on the stock. If down the road it drops low enough I will be happy to get back in.

The Numbers:
Garmin shares purchased on January 22nd for $49 per. All shares sold February 14th for $58.68. The difference gives a $9.68 profit per share (excluding commissions and margin interest.) $9.68 divided by $49 gives a 19.75% return for a 23 day holding period.

That’s it for today. Here’s to finding another quality trade and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Batman, Superman, & Crocs

Today was a busy day for Crocs watchers, at least on the reading front. For the classic tape watchers today may have ended as a “second guesser” type of day. The stock finished down 1.35% ($53.54) on above average volume.

A new Wall Street Journal article openly questions if Crocs can continue to expand at the current rate and if the stock can double again this year like it did last year. While the over all article didn’t slam Crocs it (for me) didn’t come across as hugely positive either. At any rate it didn’t have people rushing out buying the stock today.

On the bright side today brought us yet another licensing agreement. A deal announced with Warner Brothers will put the likes of Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman on Crocs soon. Perhaps there has been so many licensing deal of late (NCAA, NHL, NFL, Nickelodeon) that the market no longer gets jazzed. (Looked that way today.)

Toward the end of the day a nice piece came out about the growth opportunities in Europe. It seems that Crocs is expanding nicely just across the pond. The Thomas Weisel firm sees the growth pattern in Europe mirroring that of the U.S. only running about 12-18 months behind as Crocs continues to ramp up their distribution channels. Their opinion is that Crocs may see 50% of revenues coming from international sales this year. (I would call that a good thing.)

Last but certainly not least Crocs picked February 20th as the official date to report numbers. They are scheduled to start at 4:30 Eastern. You can listen to the whole thing through a link on their web site (here).

Although it has hurt my eyes watching the stock fall the past few days I still think the company will have good things to say on the 20th. As the stock continues to have days where the chart is going almost straight up… or down it is not lost on me that Warner Brothers already has the Batman name on a rollercoaster along with a Superman coaster.

That’s it for today. Here’s to stocks that don't make us queasy and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Thursday, February 08, 2007

Crocs, Garmin, and freaking Waiting

Nothing exciting to update today and that is my problem. I spend all this time researching companies, looking at charts, planning my trade, and then finally pushing money into pot then there’s nothing to do but wait and see how the trade turns out. And that sucks. I know what “they” say about over trading your account and commissions eating away at you and all that other stuff that seems to, at times, zap every ounce of fun out of picking stocks and trading. Fine I’ll wait. But it still sucks and I still hate waiting.

Garmin found its way up almost 3% today. Good. About time. I thought we would get something going into earnings that is why I stabbed at it when it was $49. Today is closed at $53.15. The plan is (if) when it hits $54 I’ll throw in a stop and let it play out till earnings. I’m still leaning toward exiting before earnings with a gain. Knock on wood. Waiting.

Crocs took a pause today, slipping almost 2% to end at $56.49. Blame it on Cramer if you need to, it doesn’t matter. I am not too troubled by today’s action. Have you seen CROX’s chart for the past couple of weeks? Earnings will be out soon and I’m thinking that the growth continues at a torrid pace. If the numbers are bad and the stock tanks expect a post shortly after that is titled, “The stupidity of not using stops.” Waiting.

What I need is another company or three to start researching. Something to help pass the time while I’m waiting. The truth is I don’t have anything lined up to go after Garmin. Guess I should be working on that this weekend. Did I mention that I am not particularly fond of waiting?


Have an idea or three on a company I should take a look over let me know. What do you do while you’re waiting to see how your trades turn out?

That’s it for tonight. Here’s to twiddling thumbs and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Crocs, Dora, and Ocean Minded

Crocs has yet to announce an official date for telling us about earnings but Friday the stock acted like blow out numbers had just hit the wire. A big fat 5.85% rise had us sitting at $54.79 for the close. And once again had me Daydreaming about $100.

After half of my position got called away last month I kept feeling that it was a mistake to have let those shares go. So a little hastily I jumped back in on January 30th. I admit I was more interested in getting in than getting a good entry price. My order was filled at $52.50, which for that day looked like a mistake. As the price continued to drop the next day my next order was filled at $50.00 and the previous day’s $52.50 looked like a bigger oops. Those two orders replaced what I had called away only at a much higher price. (Could someone please tell me why Mr. Experience gives the lessons after the test instead of the other way around?)

Besides a new 52 week high last week also brought us interesting press releases. Crocs signed an agreement with Nickelodeon. The deal puts Dora the Explorer and SpongeBob SquarePants on Crocs shoes. From what I have read those will be available this summer in some markets. I think these will sell well to the kids and translate into bottom line dollars for Crocs.

The other big announcement was that Crocs is buying all of Ocean Minded LLC. Looking at Ocean Minded’s website I see they make flip flops. I am along way from an ocean and to tell the truth never heard of the company. I will use the distance excuse rather than admitting that perhaps they design for and target a less experienced (younger) market than myself. Anyway I am guessing that their flops are now going to be made with Croslite, maybe, I haven’t heard. Dora is going to make us some dollars, Ocean Minded I’m not sure about yet.

What is your take on the Nickelodeon and Ocean Minded deals? Can we see $100 by summer?

That’s it for today. Here’s to new 52 week highs and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.