Garmin trade ends on a positive note

Not a bad Valentine’s present. This morning GRMN was going crazy in the pre-market, up over 10%. I put in a sell order at $60, but never got filled. I was a little worried that most of that upside would disappear at the opening but I was wrong. When the bell finally sounded my streaming quotes screen was hypnotizing. Numbers changed almost faster than I could see. After a few minutes of staring I shook myself into action. I put in a 1% trailing stop in order to try and capture a steady move up. No such luck, the bids and asks were just too wild. The stop moved up some then was triggered at $58.68. I could have done better with just a limit order at $59 but I figured it was worth the shot. It wouldn’t be one of my trades if some money was not left on the table. As I am writing this GRMN is around $56-$57 so jumping out at $58.68 doesn’t seem like too bad of a deal. (Looking back I am really happy that I called it quits on SNDK when I did. Freeing up that margin money and rolling it into Garmin has made the SNDK loss back and then some.)

Garmin reported that quarterly earnings doubled and the stock still dropped from today’s high. It seems counterintuitive for it to do so. We still have some time; it wouldn’t surprise me if GRMN got back to that $59 range by the end of the day. If it runs to over $60 tomorrow then I will feel a touch foolish…for a minute. I plan on keeping an eye on the stock. If down the road it drops low enough I will be happy to get back in.

The Numbers:
Garmin shares purchased on January 22nd for $49 per. All shares sold February 14th for $58.68. The difference gives a $9.68 profit per share (excluding commissions and margin interest.) $9.68 divided by $49 gives a 19.75% return for a 23 day holding period.

That’s it for today. Here’s to finding another quality trade and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Crocs, Garmin, and freaking Waiting

Nothing exciting to update today and that is my problem. I spend all this time researching companies, looking at charts, planning my trade, and then finally pushing money into pot then there’s nothing to do but wait and see how the trade turns out. And that sucks. I know what “they” say about over trading your account and commissions eating away at you and all that other stuff that seems to, at times, zap every ounce of fun out of picking stocks and trading. Fine I’ll wait. But it still sucks and I still hate waiting.

Garmin found its way up almost 3% today. Good. About time. I thought we would get something going into earnings that is why I stabbed at it when it was $49. Today is closed at $53.15. The plan is (if) when it hits $54 I’ll throw in a stop and let it play out till earnings. I’m still leaning toward exiting before earnings with a gain. Knock on wood. Waiting.

Crocs took a pause today, slipping almost 2% to end at $56.49. Blame it on Cramer if you need to, it doesn’t matter. I am not too troubled by today’s action. Have you seen CROX’s chart for the past couple of weeks? Earnings will be out soon and I’m thinking that the growth continues at a torrid pace. If the numbers are bad and the stock tanks expect a post shortly after that is titled, “The stupidity of not using stops.” Waiting.

What I need is another company or three to start researching. Something to help pass the time while I’m waiting. The truth is I don’t have anything lined up to go after Garmin. Guess I should be working on that this weekend. Did I mention that I am not particularly fond of waiting?

Have an idea or three on a company I should take a look over let me know. What do you do while you’re waiting to see how your trades turn out?

That’s it for tonight. Here’s to twiddling thumbs and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Garmin starting a move before earnings?

Maybe. My tealeaves were slightly a skewed and my crystal ball a touch cloudy this morning so I am without a plausible, convincing guess, (the kind that would make it onto a CNBC sound bite), as to why the upside this day. But, if you pushed me (or paid me) for an answer then I could say this with absolute certainty; (you can quote me from here) “Something had GRMN taking forward steps today. After careful study of today’s action and upward trend of today’s chart “we” are comfortable in saying that it had something to do with the buyers. “We” would like to see this stock hold steady above $55 before “we” would be comfortable in saying that it can reach $53. Just keep in mind that we (you) could see some retracement at any time from this level.” With that now being tested and edited for sound bite quality we can get to the ending numbers. The close found us sitting at $51.15, that’s a nice gain just shy of 3% for the day. Not a bad day regardless of what got us there.

Ever since I bought GRMN back on January 22nd I have been trying to formulate a plan. Well now I have one, at least for today. 10% that’s my whole plan so far. If Garmin can see its way to $53.90 or more before earnings release on the 14th then I will let them go. I am not opposed to holding through earnings like I was with Sandisk. My thinking is simply I’m on margin and 10% in less than a month ain’t too bad. (Bird in the hand and all that…) Stay tuned I’ll let you know how it pans out.

That's it for today. Here's to figuring out why stocks go up. And to keep an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Garmin, Crocs, and Sandisk take a beating

A beating is perhaps a shade strong. Today was not like an Enron “what the hell just happened” beating but today was enough that I almost titled this post: “The @*#$?! Sky is Falling”. By the end of the day Garmin, Crocs, and Sandisk were all showing red in my account. Crocs was the blue ribbon loser for me today, down 2.82%. Sandisk was a close second falling 2.05% and Garmin tried its best to suck today, down 1.49%. The small sliver of a silver lining was that Garmin stayed above where I bought them the other day. (That small positive note is courtesy of my wife, she always seems to see the bright side of things. With us going on three years of marriage I guess that sunny disposition has rubbed off on me some, probably when I wasn’t looking. )

After the beating today it will be interesting to see how they fair tomorrow. SNDK has earnings next week and CROX should be announcing shortly. What happens in the next few weeks will dictate what I end up doing with those two. Garmin doesn’t show its hand till February 14th. I still don’t know about them, a few of those GRMN shares may end up being carried as a long(er) term holding. It seems that GPS navigation is almost to the point of “have to have”. You know kind of like cable TV. (wink, wink)

Remember having to get UP and change the TV channel, getting letters in the mail from far away friends, and having to finally stop to ask directions when we were “almost” lost. My how cool companies have changed our world.

That’s it for today. Here’s to the market not punching too hard tomorrow and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Will Garmin’s GPSs locate a pile of cash?

I just can’t seem to leave the margin alone. It wasn’t but a couple of days ago that some of my CROX got called away and put my margin balance almost to zero. Now tonight I’m right back at it. Garmin (GRMN) bounced around this morning and I “had” to pick up some shares at $49.

Some of my thinking: Earnings are due out February 14th. S&P has a 5 star Strong Buy on the shares and a 12 mo. price target of $61. Back in December GRMN was at $55. The shares are now in the $50 range, that’s about a 10% correction. The February 50 calls are being priced at a nice premium. Garmin has cool toys! All of these ideas and a few others were racing around my head this morning at the same time my available margin was blowing trumpets like Churchill Downs calling me back to the action. I pulled the trigger at $49 and promptly watched it fall below $49. Ain’t that what happens to everyone?

The decision I need to make…soon is whether to sell February covered calls? I could probably get around $2.00 for the February 50s. Take the $2.00 add the $1.00 for the strike price difference, divide that by $49.00 and I end up with around 6% for a month holding time. Not bad and kind of conservative. Or I can wait it out till earnings are reported. If the numbers are good then we race back to $50 (maybe) or above $50 (double maybe with a cherry on top) and I make 10% plus in a month.

Tonight I just don’t know which way I want to hop. If you have a take on Garmin or an opinion on which way I should go then drop me an e-mail or post a comment. Thanks.

That’s it for today. Here’s to being ready to pull the trigger and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Just looking... Thanks (trading)

Garmin LTD (GRMN) still pops up on my radar every few days. I had some Oct $47.50s covered calls get called away and still keep an eye on it. Today Soleil upgraded them from Hold to Buy. The company is solid, makes cool stuff that more and more people seem to think is a necessity. Their products are everywhere from airplanes to people’s pockets. The problem, and this has happen more than I care to think about, is lack of available funds right this minute. My whole trading account and margin too is tied to CROX and SNDK.

But let us pretend for a minute that I have room for another stock. Because the other two are taking longer to work out than planed I would see GRMN as a short term play. (Give me my money and let me go back to worrying about SNDK.) Covered calls would be my vehicle of choice for this play. Here’s one scenario: Close today was $50.25. A buy at that price and writing Jan $52.50 covered calls for about $1.60. I would fully expect (and hoping) to get called out come January. $2.25 price appreciation plus $1.60 premium is $3.85. That is around a 7.6% return for less than 40 days, not counting margin interest and commissions. If I didn’t get called it would still give me a shade over 3%. The 3% is enough to cover the margin interest and I would still be holding a stock that I like.

Ideally I would like GRMN at a price south of $50 and would be ready to wait a few days for that chance. This stock seems to rock up and down. I’m pretty sure I would be forgoing some upside by letting the stock go at $52.50 but for a quick short term play I’ll take 7.6% for 40 days. Thoughts and ideas welcomed.

This is just me thinking out loud. Please do your own research and take responsibility for the good and bad things that happen in your life.

More later.