Showing posts with label Sandisk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sandisk. Show all posts

Monday, January 29, 2007

Sandisk sold in After Hours

Good or bad is yet to be decided but today I finally gave up on SNDK. They report numbers tomorrow and today they dropped yet again. It was hard to give up on it and change the paper loss into the real thing. The loss was big enough to get my attention and make me feel like an idiot for picking this stock, but not so big as to take me out of the game. It could have been worse. But then again it could have gone far better than it did. A smack in the nose every now and then keeps me humble and reminds me to focus and pay attention.

What did I learn? I need to do a better job at not rushing in. I started with the idea of writing some nice covered calls. I did a quick once over and the numbers didn’t look too bad. Sandisk had already taken a hit after the last quarter’s numbers came out and I figured that they were about done falling. Oops. After I was knee deep in stock I got a crash course on flash technology. Depending on who you listen to there seems to be two basic arguments. This is a company facing declining margins and tougher competition than ever before. The 40s are just a pause in a share price on its way to the low 30s. Others argue that its cutting edge leadership, size, and efficiencies will allow it to overcome any NAND gluts, margin contractions, and on and on back to a stock price more in the neighborhood of 70s or 80s. Now here’s the problem. I am just not smart enough about this business or the flash industry to even be able to argue either side. And that my friends is a problem when you don’t even know where to stand. So I had to hang it up. There is just too much uncertainty going into tomorrow’s earnings call.

The numbers: Bought the shares on October 30th 2006 for $48.20 per share. Sold covered calls the same day (Nov. 50s) for $1.20. Since the stock wasn’t called away I sold Dec. 50s for $1.35 on November 20th 2006. Today sold all SNDK shares for $42.24. Final tally not counting commissions and margin interest about a 7.5% loss.

That’s it for today. Here’s to just moving on and to trying to keep an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Thursday, January 25, 2007

Garmin, Crocs, and Sandisk take a beating

A beating is perhaps a shade strong. Today was not like an Enron “what the hell just happened” beating but today was enough that I almost titled this post: “The @*#$?! Sky is Falling”. By the end of the day Garmin, Crocs, and Sandisk were all showing red in my account. Crocs was the blue ribbon loser for me today, down 2.82%. Sandisk was a close second falling 2.05% and Garmin tried its best to suck today, down 1.49%. The small sliver of a silver lining was that Garmin stayed above where I bought them the other day. (That small positive note is courtesy of my wife, she always seems to see the bright side of things. With us going on three years of marriage I guess that sunny disposition has rubbed off on me some, probably when I wasn’t looking. )

After the beating today it will be interesting to see how they fair tomorrow. SNDK has earnings next week and CROX should be announcing shortly. What happens in the next few weeks will dictate what I end up doing with those two. Garmin doesn’t show its hand till February 14th. I still don’t know about them, a few of those GRMN shares may end up being carried as a long(er) term holding. It seems that GPS navigation is almost to the point of “have to have”. You know kind of like cable TV. (wink, wink)

Remember having to get UP and change the TV channel, getting letters in the mail from far away friends, and having to finally stop to ask directions when we were “almost” lost. My how cool companies have changed our world.

That’s it for today. Here’s to the market not punching too hard tomorrow and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Monday, January 08, 2007

Sandisk and Crocs come out swinging

Today is the first day of CES and someone must have liked what they saw and heard from Sandisk. The stock went as high as $45.15 today and finished up nicely at $44.30. Sandisk introduced several new products that should help the bottom line this year. If you didn’t see any of the press announcements on the new products you can get caught up by visiting SNDK’s pressroom. After watching today’s action and hearing all about the new stuff I am glad I found a little more patience when I was ready to throw in the towel. I am not getting too excited right now and still have fingers crossed with earnings right around the corner.

Crocs had a good showing today also. They finished up 2.56% at $44.80. Someone must think they are going to say some really good thinks at the big investor conference that is starting on Wednesday. You have so many people talking fad and one trick pony with this stock. If their new line up of shoes starts doing well then I feel this stock could make me some real money. I am looking forward to what is said on Wednesday, although with earnings right around the corner I don’t feel they will be giving away any secrets.

All in all it does my mood good when both of these stocks start the week off strong.



technorati tags

Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Push (trading)

Let me wade right in here. At one point Crocs sprinted up almost 5%. Watching it, I was thinking $50 by Friday and $60 by month’s end. That may be overly optimistic but hey I can attach any number I want when I am daydreaming.

Well it didn’t take much to snap me back to reality. Sandisk is the antidaydreaming stock if there ever was one. At one point Sandisk was down almost 5%. What’s with the 5% stuff today? So my idea of a rise going into CES burst into flames and came crashing down around my head today. To my knowledge there hasn’t been a big press release about anything, so I have no idea what was the driving force today. My lack of understanding doesn't stop the speculation from flying on the boards. Sometimes a little comic relief in the middle of a melt down is healthy. For the record, I am voting against the drop today being the result of “the pros coming after the little guy conspiracy”. But let it drop like this again tomorrow and I might reconsider. What I do know is that it was Ugly today. And I am back to internally questioning my hold decision.

At the close CROX was sitting pretty with a 1.85% increase and Sandisk sat with a 3.04% loss hanging around its neck. Both stocks made their move with above average volume. After having my emotions run in two different directions, like my stocks, it was anticlimactic to have my account finish almost even for the day. Like a stupid push in blackjack today left me a touch unsatisfied.

How do you feel when you end flat neither showing a gain nor a loss for the day’s effort?

That’s it for today. Here’s to not ending flat too often and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.




technorati tags

Saturday, December 23, 2006

Patience with Sandisk (trading)

I have no idea where my patience has gone. When I bought my first stock and enrolled in their DRIP I knew, deep down, I was in for the long haul. Now I get impatient if a stock pick drags on for more than a month or two. I have set this money aside to trade with and I want my picks to move. October 30th, that is when I first pushed money into Sandisk. Since then it has fallen steadily, mocking me and burning holes in my money and patience. I try to remember that 2 months isn’t all that long to wait. It is hard, at least for me. Just a few days ago I was ready to throw in the towel but have been dragging my feet since then.

With CES (Consumer Electronic Show) right around the corner and earnings release shortly after that I feel I should wait and see. It is just that being under water makes my mind and patience do crazy things. It isn’t the market makers or the institutions or even the shorts that I battle. No, for me the greatest battle is mostly with myself. The next few weeks should tell the tale. If we can’t get a move up going into and shortly after earnings then all this waiting will be in vain and I will have to admit the mistake by taking a realized lose.

How much patience do you have with stocks that are under water?

That’s it for today. May your blessings be many and your patience great during this holiday time. Speak kindly and keep an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Monday, December 18, 2006

Dragging my feet (trading)

So I have been dragging my feet on selling Sandisk. Last week I was looking for the towel and today I sit with the stock still. You never can predict luck. This morning the company announces that they are buying back $300 million of stock. Some analyst says he thinks they can beat estimates coming up and like that the stock is off and running yet again. One part of my brain says, "stick with the plan and sell. Take the loss and move on. You are down enough and that is the smart thing to do." While the other half of my brain is screaming, "the quarter’s numbers will be great, end of January, sell now and you will be watching it climb all through February." And in the mist of those two competing voices the margin interest keeps a humming its own little tune.

All said and done if I wait and cash out at $45.73 I pretty much break even. That is if we get to $45.73. The only thing I would lose is a few pennies of margin interest and two months of time. Anything over $45.73 is some kind of profit. The problem is that I don’t have hard and fast trading rules. I know, I know, all the books say you are supposed to have rules. After all that is how the “pros” do it. There in lies the problem; I am just your average guy battling my own fear and greed demons.

If I am right and this stock buy back plan puts a floor under the stock we should move up from here going into the earnings announcement. If the earnings and gross margins are good then Sandisk continues to climb into February. Maybe. If the numbers are bad or even mediocre then everyone says, “I told you so”. If that happens then $44 won’t even be a bus stop on the express way to the $30’s. Maybe. All I need from here is a little over 4% to the good and I could get out without a loss and watch it all play out from the sidelines. The problem with that is I have found the view is never as good or as rewarding when you are on the outside looking in. So for now I am still dragging my feet on selling. Peering out from the inside at those on the outside watching that have nothing at risk.

Do you have and follow hard and fast rules with your trading?

That’s it for today. Here’s to being part of the game. Take a risk and keep your eye on your EveryDay Money.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Where did I put that towel? (trading)

So… I’ve slept on it and then watched as Sandisk continued to throw off money again today. It is all but a done deal that my December covered calls will expire this Friday without anyone wanting to give me $50 per share. Too bad, at $50 per share I was going to throw in a big Thank You card, a cleverly wrapped box of chocolates, and a music playing Christmas card.

In all seriousness, I feel the odds of making money on this stock, near term, going against me. I feel there is something I am missing or not understanding about something going on with this stock / company. That is not a position that I want to still be in come earnings time. I will be looking to unwind my position in the coming days, take my lumps and move on to the next opportunity.

Just writing this is aggravating. For me making a bad call is like taking a UFC elbow to my brain and confidence. The money loss is just a (BEEP BEEP BLEEPING) exclamation point on the whole thing. A not so subtle reminder to do better next time. I’ll let you know how it unwinds.

That’s it today. Here’s to taking the medicine and getting better. Keep an eye on your Everyday Money

Monday, December 11, 2006

Concerned (trading)

With the 2% drop today I am officially concerned about this stock. The January 50’s call prices are getting bad and I am starting to think of outs. This week looks like it will pass with SNDK under $50. I will still have the stock next week and need to decide whether to try and wring out some more nickels and dimes by writing January covered calls or just throw in the towel. Can’t really say right now which way I will fall. I try and not make any big decision after a down day without first sleeping on it.

That’s it for today. Here’s to everyone holding stocks that let them sleep well. Sleep tight and remember to keep an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

When it rains it pours (trading)

Today it rained buckets of goodness as both my SNDK and CROX took off running. My confidence was climbing with every tandem up tick. I will admit my excitement was somewhat tempered by the memory of yesterday (see A kick in the teeth). But still by the end of the day Sandisk’s 3%, that’s a nice fat 3%, rise on good volume was a really nice sight to see. Almost Pavlov like I see green and feel smart. When the numbers turn red I feel dumb. Maybe it’s only me?

I would like to send out a big Thank You to all that watched the ticks, fingers crossed, this whole day while I worked. Your positive thoughts and mojo directed at Sandisk (SNDK) did not go unnoticed. With that said it does make me wonder where all of you were yesterday?

As for Crocs (CROX) they finished a nice 1.70% up ($43.05). It was reported that they introduced their Spring line-up at some conference thing yesterday. I still haven’t been able to find pictures of the new shoes. With half of my shares having Dec. 45s calls sold against them (see Ugly Shoes) I am starting to think I might lose them next Friday. Not sure how I feel about that possibility right now.

That’s it for today. Here’s good luck to all of you trying to get ahead tomorrow. Until then keep your eye on your
EveryDay Money.

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

A kick in the teeth (trading)

So… I sat and watched as the rocket ship took off this morning. Sandisk (SNDK) was racing up on good volume faster than the closet longs could get to their keyboards and post the
“I told you so”s on the boards.

As the stock and volume continued to rise I started running numbers as visions of a Money Christmas danced in my head. If this go go feeling stayed for a couple of days then, hey, I might actually get called out on my Dec 50s. Then what am I going to do? If it pulls up slightly under $50 by next Friday then the 52.50s or 55s calls of January may be good to sell. And I could make even more money. (Never a bad thing) Work beckoned and I had to push away from the computer and the party going on throughout the message boards. Funny how being right is contagious. For the rest of my day I walked with that little spring in my step. You know the one, the one that comes from being up nicely at the start of your day. (Don’t tell me I am the only one that gets that bounce?)

Finally, I got to check back towards the close. And like that… my air of a good day was kicked out of me. When I left this morning we were closing in on $46.50 up 3 some percent and cruising. At the close THAT stock sat at $45.23. Crap! Screw work. I should have kept watching. My watching was the driving force this morning; I was THE good luck charm. (I am not the only one that has had those thoughts run through their head … am I?) I have been trying to look on the bright side, and just be happy with a positive close. But I can’t. Giving up almost all of this morning’s gains is just a kick in the teeth. Crap!

That’s it for tonight. Here’s to tomorrow being another day. Until then keep your eye on your EveryDay Money

p.s. don't forget to throw your vote in the poll (Hang On) Thanks

Monday, December 04, 2006

Green is good (trading)

What a nice close today to see SNDK and CROX both in the green. Perhaps Mom was right about playing nice with others (see Momma said… & pound of sorry entries for the beginning of that story).

Volume wasn’t that terrific for CROX today, but still an up day is an up day. I think, for the record, that with the large amounts that institutions hold and all the shares that are shorted we will not see much of anything in either direction until some kind of sales numbers are reported. Or at least leaked.

Nobody really knows which way this is going to go yet. We are all just trying to guess right. I am still holding long thinking positive things about positive numbers. Just guessing again, I think the deal with the University Crocs will far out strip the Disney deal at least in the U.S. Overseas I give the edge to the Disney Crocs.

A reminder to cast your vote in the poll (Hang On)

That’s it for today. Here’s to seeing another up day tomorrow. Until then keep your eye on your EveryDay Money.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

X-mas day (trading)

SNDK red 2.32%, CROX green 1.53%. With these one up one down red and green days I don’t know how to feel at the end. This is not the first time they have gone in opposite direction. Red and Green what am I freaking Santa.

Microsoft reported that they now have 9% of market with their ZUNE. (What is this pick a product name by committee?) With their 9% that puts them in the number 2 spot ahead of Sandisk MP3 players. Is that why they continued to fall today? Some on the boards seem to think that is it. Well it was that or simply SNDK is the worst company ever. I would like to think today was more of the first and less of the second. I am glad that my retirement and life style doesn’t ride on the nickels and dimes that I have in this account. Knowing that, it is fun and interesting to watch (all be it painful at times). I am not ready to let it go, at least not yet. Have been looking at the Jan. options already. The plan right now is to sell covered calls again in December to generate a little money coming in. I’ll let your know. And now the GREEN ( yea!)

CROX, my ugly shoe guys bounced a little today. I am not even going to hazard a guess as to why. Some bodies somewhere bought shares and some bodies sold shares and when all was said and done today it was up 1.53%. Good. If they could get back to $45+ and I was called out in Dec. (on half of my position) I would be fine with it. Average price for me is $44.26. I received $1.60 for the calls. If called out in December then .74 + $1.60 = $2.34 divide by $44.26 give me 5.28% return on half of my position for what 25 days. I’ll take that. See I am so much more positive when talking about green stocks. On green Days I almost have that winning stock picker swagger. It is just these freaking X-mas days that my emotions get whipsawed.

That’s it for today, may more of your days than not be Green. And keep you eye on your EveryDay Money

Monday, November 27, 2006

batting single A

Well with SanDisk (SNDK) taking almost a 5% hit today it is hard to think my picking it anything but a mistake. Of course if it had GAINED 5% today, instead, I would be thinking, “… I knew it, never had a doubt.” And there in lies the rub. Today was a little confusing to watch. The CEO had nice things to say about the company this past weekend. Then boom! Red numbers today that trickled lower as the day wore on.
Perhaps I should start back a bit.

I poked at Sandisk (SNDK) at the end of Oct. (10-30-06). Pushed the chips in at $48.20 and knew almost immediately that it was going against me. Looked at the numbers again (P/E, sales, cash flow, the usual suspects) and still thought the company worth my dollars. Instead of selling out I wrote Nov. 50’s covered call options at $1.25 that same day. I then spent the next few weeks watching it drift downward. November expiration came and went and I still had the stock all be it underwater. Not ready to call it a mistake I wrote the Dec. 50’s at $1.35 on 11-20-06. The stock has been treading water in the 47’s most of the time, until today. I wait and watch as the Dec. expiration draws closer. Some days I rationalize the buy and the covered calls were the smart thing and other days (like today) I feel like I stepped on a landmine.

The difference between the “pros” and the others is the ability to take small losses and move on. (Read that somewhere) The way I change my mind on whether this was a good or bad trade and hang on to it in the mean time makes it look like I will be batting single A for awhile longer. Stay tuned I’ll let you know how it all works out. Maybe tomorrow I will tell you about buying Crocs (CROX) on margin and still hanging on to that too.

That’s it for today. Keep your eye on your EveryDay Money