Back to Writing

I’ll make this short. I’m back posting and looking forward to hearing from you all. There have been some changes and I’ll be getting to them in the coming days. I have cleaned up all the spam comments (at least for now ) that have accumulated the past couple of years. Hard to believe I have been away for so long. The thing that hasn’t change is that I still have my trade account, albeit a lot smaller than it was in the Crocs heydays. But, I didn’t run it to zero so as long as I have a chair at the table I’ll play on. I have changed my trading strategies, those too in the days to come.

That’s it. Here’s to coming back to the pad and pencil. Keep your eye on your Everyday Money.

Dr.Pepper coming to Chicago Merc?

Why there is not a pit in Chicago for Dr.Pepper is beyond my comprehension. I can guarantee there is money to be made. Ask anyone and they will tell you I suck down my fair share of Dr.Pepper daily. Been doing that since my late teens when I was working in restaurants. It is this addiction that puts me in constant contact with the schizophrenic pricing policies of my local bottler and the all mighty Dr. Pepper Snapple Group down in Plano Texas. Now here’s the thing; I live in a good size Midwestern market and the price swings here are enough to have an oil trader holding on with both hands.

On a “normal” day prices run $4.59 per 12 pack and $1.69 for a two liter. The bargains start (as in scoop up the store limit multiple days of the sale) when 12-packs hit $2.50 and two liters go for $1. For those doing the math in their heads let me help. A drop from $4.59 a twelve to $2.50 is a 46% drop. For the two liters it is a drop of 41%. Then there is the gray area, sales like 3 12-packs for $10 or 4 for $12. This is not a once a year price move. I am talking every couple of weeks if not weekly there will be a reversal in trend. Addictive consumption and consistent high percentage price swings, how is that not a recipe for money to be made on futures contracts? The oil boys seem to be making out ok.

Carbonated water, high fructose corn syrup, caramel color, phosphoric acid, natural and artificial flavors, sodium benzoate, caffeine (my personal favorite). Now someone please tell me which of these pieces cause prices to swing 50%?

So enough already, start a pit and let’s get a position on. I have watched prices and timed my purchases well enough to have a running stockpile of about 14 12-packs in the basement. Average price somewhere south of $2.90 per. I am highly confident I am ready for the big time. Been practicing my hand signals and screaming. Wake up Merc! Both of us are missing out on some money here.

So if you have some strings to pull with the Chicago Merc then start yankin’, send me an e-mail right after. I can be ready to start trading an account within 48 hours. Or if you can explain why prices swing 50% or more please post a comment. I am sure I am not alone in questioning the soda people’s pricing policies. Thanks and let me know.

There is no spoon

What happens if it isn’t the greedy evil banks that are limiting credit to people? What happens if it is the people themselves? “There is no spoon” The financial world almost came to an end or so we have been told and yet now there seems to be a need to see things return to “normal”. It seems that there are plenty of people in government and on the money shows that know who is to blame and aren’t that shy at pointing them out. Yet no one it seems is putting forth the idea that the near miss with Armageddon has fundamentally changed the way people manage, spend, and save their money. “Free your mind” If people are pulling back their need for credit because they have decided that it is far more wise to unplug from the credit card matrix then the bank’s willingness to lend is taken out of the equation. It is us that are in control of ourselves now. “Were you listening to me, Neo? Or were you looking at the woman in the red dress?” It seems that all the solutions being put forth are designed to do little except blur our perceptions of reality and being us back to the old normal. Our perception is clouded even more as the sentinels of the information dictate what is news and what is to be believed. Shovel ready projects, TARP, bailouts, rates kept at zero, spending as if the money was real, and still believing that the consumer not only can but wants to make up 70% of GDP. Efforts made to calm out fears and get us spending like what… like we used to? As if it was even possible to return. “The answer is out there, Neo, and it's looking for you, and it will find you if you want it to” And if the past two years have unplugged the average American from our unsustainable behaviors forever, what then? In time the nation and the world adapts to a new level of consumption. One that is based off of our net worth instead of the size of credit lines. The great bubbles of tech and real estate get taught as part of history. The young adults of tomorrow look back and wonder how their parents could have stayed delusional for so long. Politicians slowly get voted out until members of government reflect the spending habits of the average person. New businesses spring up, compete, and adapt to the now normal. Dave Ramsey’s business stumbles then falls because there is no one left to teach how to be responsible with their money.

"You take the blue pill, the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to. You take the red pill, and stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes."

Back into the light

Is it safe to come out yet? Maybe I should begin with is it even safe to look yet? It certainly has been a long while since my last post. When the darkness comes and threatens the very foundation of capitalism I find it best to pull family close and hang on.

A brief recap: Couple of years ago had some CROX stock and a few others in an account that I thought was destined to be my early retirement. The gains were easy, fast, and large. The market cracked. I made one stupid mistake after another. The market broke. My bad trade decisions snowballed into insanity. Tried very hard to run the account to zero and almost succeeded. Ducked and covered for what has felt like decades. Found ETF religion. Am currently in the process of gluing the jagged and charred pieces of my account back together. Took a hesitant step back into the light. Finally back to writing.

Here’s to sunshine on your face, accounts that don’t read zero, and to keeping both eyes on your EveryDayMoney.

Enron, New Century, and ADD moments

As I read this story about New Century’s collapse I couldn’t help thinking back to Enron. During their heyday both sat close to the top of their respective fields; Enron with energy trading and New Century with its boatloads of sub-prime mortgage loans. And now both destined to be homework assignments for future MBAs. What ties both of them together for me is that at one time they both caught my investment eye and almost my investment dollars.

I would love to claim that I had the foresight and investment acumen to duck investing in either but the truth is much simpler. Avoiding sinking money into them boiled down to old fashion luck and a few well timed ADD moments. Days before I was to jump on the bandwagon and throw money at Enron I got distracted with Exxon. Then in an ADD blink my money was headed to XOM and their DRIP, with Enron forgotten about till they made the nightly news with their meltdown. A few years back New Century seemed to be making money hand over fist. They had popped up on a stock screen and with a money sense of déjà vu` another bandwagon was going by. Once again my ADD sidetracked me with General Growth Properties (GGP). General Growth had likewise popped up on a screen, they just didn’t seem… I don’t know… as sexy as NEW. Well some how GGP got the check and I got another DRIP.

Sometimes, I wonder if I would have had the presence of mind to jump off the Enron free falling elevator or if I would have had frozen up and crashed to zero with it. Looking back at NEW’s chart I wonder how many felt the end near when it dropped from $30 to $20 in a day and sold? How many bought at $16 thinking there would be a bounce? How many still sit with shares bought at $60 back in ‘05 wondering what just happened?

I don’t wish anyone bad luck in the market, we all have to eat. But… with that being said I am more than willing to learn from other’s mistakes. After all it is alot cheaper and one day the ADD may not be there to save me.

Have any good “near miss” stories? I would love to hear them. E-mail me or add a comment.

That’s it for today. Here’s to near misses, ADD moments, imploding companies, and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Be comfortable with your activities and investments

I was at an airshow this summer and had the pleasure of watching the Army’s Golden Knights skydiving demo team. They teased and toyed with gravity and did things in the sky that made me shake my head in amazement. As I watched them step out of their plane that was WAY up there I couldn’t help but to think that a plane would have to be on fire, heavy fire, for me ever to want to jump out of it. Shortly after the Golden Knights finished an airshow pilot pealed his sleek aerobatic plane off the runway rolled it once and put it on an upline that had me craning my neck back in seconds. I stood and watched this guy roll, loop, and literally summersault this plane across the sky. As he landed all I could think was, “How do I get a ride in one of those?” Being upside down in a plane I am comfortable with, jump out of that plane I’m not.

Uncomfortable is pretty much my emotion when I read about people using money from zero interest credit card balance transfers to invest with. In short you pull money out with the balance transfers and usually push that money into an online savings account yielding 5% plus. Somewhere down that road you pay the money back and keep the interest. Is the plane on fire? Now don’t get me wrong. There are people that do this and make money consistently. Just ask 2Million. Over on his blog he has a great how-to about making money with balance transfers. More power to you if balance transfers work for you. For me it is too much like jumping out of the plane… blindfolded.

On the flip side of that I have no problem buying stocks on margin. With the margin buying I am still borrowing good size sums only now the interest is far from zero and the stocks a long way from FDIC insured. Can you make the plane go upside down again, please. Some would go as far as to say that buying on margin comes with greater risk than the balance transfers path. I would not disagree with that being said. For me margin buying is like snap rolling an Edge 540… exciting and fun. (Could one of these ideas be better than the other for you? Sure. Could they both be bad ideas for you? Yes! Could you be comfortable using both? Some people are.)

Many “professionals” say we should invest in things and companies that we know something about. Well hell I know a little bit about a lot of things, not all of them I would be comfortable sinking my money into. (I’ll take margin buying over balance transfers, stocks over rental property, aerobatics over skydiving, a mountain view over a city skyline…)

My point is this: Seek investments and activities that you are comfortable with. Don’t get me wrong I am not advocating NEVER doing things that take you out of your comfort zone, after all that is how we continue to grow. Just keep in mind as you read, listen, or watch different investment ideas being showcased that not everyone of those “great ideas” is great for you. There are no hard and fast rules as to how or what you ultimately should invest in. Don’t give it a second thought if your comfort level doesn’t match up with Dave Ramsey, David Bach, Robert Kiyosaki, Jean Chatzky, or even me. As long as you are making an effort in managing your money, preparing for your future, seeking enjoyable company and activities then that’s enough.
We all make far better decisions when we are comfortable with our current situation and investments as opposed to being mind numbingly stressed out. Repeatedly making better decisions not only increases the return on our investments but also the return on our life.

That’s it for today. Here’s to people, activities, and investments that make us smile. And to keeping an eye on our EveryDay Money.

Happy New Year

I hope you all have your resolutions in place and none of them have been broken on the first day. Good luck with them and I hope they last. Both Crocs and Sandisk finished the year on an up note, so my New Years may get started on a good note. Sandisk has CES starting on the 8th and both companies report numbers toward the end of the month. After having waited this long I will hold SNDK till earnings with my fingers crossed. With expanded distribution this winter I am looking for CROX to report big numbers. They need to or their P/E and stock price is liable to fall off the table. Guess we will see Wednesday when everyone comes back.

I didn’t do any resolutions this year. If I was pressed to come up with one it would be simply; make good decisions based on solid research. That sounds nice and easy enough, at least tonight with the market closed this whole day. When the market opens and the New Year kicks off it will be harder. When I am watching my money bounce up and down it becomes harder not to get emotional. At least I can say I am getting better. I make fewer trades based on emotions than I did when I was younger. The downside is that I had to get old(er) in order to get that experience. I wish you good luck with your money for this whole year and many after.

Did you make any resolutions?

That’s it for today. Here’s to making smart decisions this year and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Stand up! (musings)

Ok stay with me for a second. There are two guys both drowning in only three feet of water. Both screaming for help. A nice bystander on the beach sees what is happening and yells back, “Stand up!” One guy puts his feet down and stands up, saving his own life, changing his future. The other guy continues to thrash about and eventually drowns, still wondering why no one came and fixed his problem for him.

That, overly simplified, is how I see people most of the time. It is not about color, money, height, weight, looks, or nationality. No, for the most part there are only two types of people; those that act upon Life and those that make excuses and wait for Life to act upon them. From the outside you can’t tell but talk to someone a little, ask a few questions, listen to them complain about their job some or talk about their future plans, and you quickly find whether they are willing to stand up or not.

If you want some glowing examples take a look through some of the post on MSN money message boards. WOW, you quickly find examples of both. Some people post asking for advice on how to get out of a difficult situation. Tons of good people spend their good time replying to only have their advice dismissed out of hand. “I couldn’t possibly cut back on (take your pick), no a second job is impossible for me.” The excuses flow almost faster than the advice can be given. It drives me nuts. Why ask for advice if you aren’t willing to take any? “Help I’m drowning in 3 feet of water.” “Stand up!” but they won’t.

Then I come across this (post) today. It is about some 19 year old kid going to school, working two jobs, and already looking toward his future. On the surface this seems like the type of guy that acts upon his life. The way I see it if he keeps working to impact his life and future then one day (perhaps at my age) he will realize his life is good and just the way he designed it. Good for him making the effort to stand up.

What makes someone believe they can impact their lives and someone else content to offer excuses and take whatever live gives out?

That’s it for today. Encourage and help those willing to stand up and keep an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Fired up (musings)

There are the longs, the shorts, the ones trying to spin people up, and occasionally your ordinary idiot. Stock message boards attract them all. The two key traits seem to be passion and intensity. Nothing gets the blood flowing and the fingers typing like making or losing money and on the boards you have both in quantity everyday. Threads range from the inane to stock analysis that will equal any the “pros” put out.

With so many threads going in so many directions it may seem better and safer (to the ego) to just watch. Don’t! It isn’t double dutch jump rope; there is no “good” place to jump in. Just jump. Be prepared to take your knocks (there’s usually is no shortage of people ready to take a poke at you, no matter how great your post). Have a thick skin, a sense of humor, and some passion. Ask some questions, answer some back, try calling a bottom or a top, take sides, and have some fun with it.

Watching people surf is nice, catching a big wave is better. Before you go to bed tonight find a board and post something, anything. Let me know how it goes.

That’s it for today. Here’s to wanting everyone involved. Between posting and reading keep an eye on your EveryDay Money.

The Buffett way (musings)

So I DVRed this profile on Warren Buffett last night. I have read several books and articles about him and his investing style. I have seen him on 30 seconds sound bites but never in an extended interview. This show was an hour. Most of the interview took place in Omaha with Mr. Buffett driving the reporter around showing off his fair city talking about a wide range of topics.

He drives himself, still lives in the same house he bought 40 some years ago, eats cheeseburgers, takes time out of his day for visiting college kids, and has a good sense of humor. You would think an old man worth billions would have a well groomed driver, personal secretary following him around managing his every minute and like muscle bound ex-Navy SEALs type for bodyguards. Nope.

As the hour came to a close two things kept racing around my head. 1) Mr. Buffett found something he loved to do first then the money followed and flowed. There is a lesson there somewhere. 2) How would serious money change me?

Let’s say we aren’t kidding ourselves and the investments and trading we do eventually makes us some money, money. Would our wealth change us? And if so how?

Many people would love to be able to invest like Mr. Buffett and have the same results as he. For me, after watching that show the thing that I wish and hope to do just like him is to be able to remain myself. I want to get to his age, with my piles of money, and have a long ago friend walk up and say, “Damn. You got old. But you ain’t changed a bit.”

That’s it for today. May we each find a little bit of the Buffett way in ourselves. While we are looking remember to keep your eye on your EveryDay Money.

Are we all doomed??

Read another retirement nightmare article this morning. If you are between 35-44 there is a 50% chance you don't even have 25 grand set aside for retirement. Sad. Have no idea what this really means down the road but it can't be good. What do you think is going to happen to all these people if they really don't have money down the road? I for one am trying to save now and hope to be off the treadmill at around 55. That would be grand. Do what I want, when I want and damn the Man. For all you out there that have your big butt parked in front of that BIG screen TV that isn't paid for yet, I say this; "Get off you butt and save some money. Don't expect your kids or your government to keep you afloat in your golden years."
That is it for today. Keep your eye on your everyday money

Re-valuing

It is so easy, it seems, to lose sight of good things we already have. Well, lose sight is perhaps a bad choice of phrase. Re-value (is that even a real phrase?) would be more descriptive of the feelings flowing through my head a few weeks ago. Routinely my wife and I go for walks in the evening. We try to walk together at least once a week. The walking is not so much exercise but rather a way to spend time together and share ideas. There are times when there is everything to discuss and others when a setting sun gobbles up all the words and treats us to a quiet, free nature’s painting.

The other day, to be different, we walked around the neighborhood across the street. How easy it is to get caught up re-valuing what you own. All of those houses have three car garages, mine has two. All those houses have professional landscaping, ours has a single starter tree and some purple and some white flowers my wife planted. I am sure if I looked they all have four bedrooms and finished basements. Our house has three and exposed concrete and insulation in the basement.

Funny how in the time it takes for a brief walk I can go from being totally great with my house to feeling that it is the “small” one in the area. It did flash through my mind as I walked, “what can I buy to make my house look and be better?” I re-valued for the rest of the walk back. That night I resisted running out and buying something “well deserved”. For the next few nights I thought about what I should buy so my house could “compete” a little better against surrounding houses.

Finally after a few days I stopped contemplating and returned to the thinking I had a year ago when we first moved into the house. I like the home, I like the yard, I like the neighborhood, and above all I love who I am living with. Let others compete against that.

That is it for today. Keep the re-valuing to a minimum, and keep an eye on your EveryDay Money.