CROX is trying to drown me

Since earnings just a few weeks ago CROX has been caught in an undertow that has dragged the stock down over 20%. I can remember selling shares above $58; it is becoming a fuzzy memory as more and more down days get strung together. The shares that I do have left are totally underwater. It is starting to feel like I have been so far underwater for so long with Crocs that I should be growing gills. My average purchase price is just a touch over $51. The tiniest slivers of a silver lining are that I still have faith in the company and the stock. So for now I will wait and see if there is a run going into next earnings. Don’t get me wrong if we see $58 again before earnings then I just might call it a day. If I don’t sell the rest then at least I will throw in a stop, like I should have done the first time around.

With the way the whole market has been acting the past few weeks we all might have to work a little harder this year to make the returns that some of us have become accustomed to. For the past 2 or 3 years, I think, the market has made it too easy to make oversized returns. I have scaled back my use of margin, trying to get the account in a little more conservative posture going forward, just in case.

In light of the market’s behavior the past few weeks have you changed anything in regards to your trading?

That’s it for today. Here’s to understanding the market may actually go down. And to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Crocs stalls, Philip Morris treads water

So… As I watch CROX drop some more I am thankful that I got out of the margin loan when I did. The pattern the last few days is a quick up at the open and then steady drop for the rest of the day. The shorts are all over this one. If the Yahoo board is any indication then EVERYONE is making money shorting Crocs. Well, everyone but me. Without the margin loan I have been non-pulsed the past few days with the drops in share price. It helps that even at today’s close of $52.06 CROX is still above my cost basis. So I’ll wait. I did try and sell some March 55s calls, but no one wanted to give me $1.10 for them today. Not sure if I will try and sell them tomorrow or not.

Big MO, I think, is stuck until the spin-off happens at the end of next month. Oh, it ticks up and down but hasn’t really went anywhere for days. If there is some kind of run going into the record date (March 16th) for the spin I might be inclined to sell, but it would have to be a run. I am thinking that it would have to be in that $95 - $100 range and I am just not seeing that happen, but who knows.

I am setting with plenty of margin ability and no place to put it. Would love to put it to work, just nothing I have come across looks too interesting. With the Dow having a rough time the past few days I am in no big hurry but don’t want to let a good trade go unnoticed either. Recently there seems to be more articles and talking experts opining that a correct is due. Is it that a correction is due or a case of group think or people just getting out in front with a little CYA in case something does happen or something else entirely? Perhaps a continuation of the “Big Guys” conspiracy to rip the shares from the “little individual investor” at rock bottom, panic induced prices right before “they” let the Dow return to its record setting ways? It couldn’t really be that…right?

That’s it for today. Here’s to not losing sight of the big picture and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Sold half of CROX position

Don’t get me wrong I would love to tell everyone that I knew today’s 3 plus percent drop was coming. But we would both know I was lying. The truth is that last night I didn’t have a strong feeling about what would happen when Crocs management started talking at 4:30 (Eastern). Not having a gut feeling makes me worry. I was fairly certain that Crocs was going to put up really big numbers (they did). My plan was to sell some when the shares spiked to $60. When the shares didn’t race to $60 before the start of the conference call I got spooked. The last thing I wanted was to see a chunk of my profits slip through my fingers. That has happened enough over the years that I could start a whole other blog just for those times. So I started to cash out. I sold 25% of my position early in after hours at $58.19, then left work. By the time I got home the price was in the $56s. With the price going the wrong way and $60 looking like a foolish daydream, I decided to sell another 25% at $56.58.

If I would have known that CROX would drop to $53.98 today I would have dumped it all last night. The good news is that the selling not only eliminated my margin loan but left me with some cash. (Average cost of shares was $47.15. Selling at $58.19 and $56.58 gave me a nice return. ) Not having a margin loan hanging around costing me money also gives me some options. The plan, right now, is to keep what shares I have for awhile. I still would like to see CROX at $70 plus. Without the margin loan I can afford to wait this one out, after all summer is right around the corner and that is when Crocs should haul in the money. I hope.

That’s it for today. Here’s to cashing profits when you can and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Batman, Superman, & Crocs

Today was a busy day for Crocs watchers, at least on the reading front. For the classic tape watchers today may have ended as a “second guesser” type of day. The stock finished down 1.35% ($53.54) on above average volume.

A new Wall Street Journal article openly questions if Crocs can continue to expand at the current rate and if the stock can double again this year like it did last year. While the over all article didn’t slam Crocs it (for me) didn’t come across as hugely positive either. At any rate it didn’t have people rushing out buying the stock today.

On the bright side today brought us yet another licensing agreement. A deal announced with Warner Brothers will put the likes of Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman on Crocs soon. Perhaps there has been so many licensing deal of late (NCAA, NHL, NFL, Nickelodeon) that the market no longer gets jazzed. (Looked that way today.)

Toward the end of the day a nice piece came out about the growth opportunities in Europe. It seems that Crocs is expanding nicely just across the pond. The Thomas Weisel firm sees the growth pattern in Europe mirroring that of the U.S. only running about 12-18 months behind as Crocs continues to ramp up their distribution channels. Their opinion is that Crocs may see 50% of revenues coming from international sales this year. (I would call that a good thing.)

Last but certainly not least Crocs picked February 20th as the official date to report numbers. They are scheduled to start at 4:30 Eastern. You can listen to the whole thing through a link on their web site (here).

Although it has hurt my eyes watching the stock fall the past few days I still think the company will have good things to say on the 20th. As the stock continues to have days where the chart is going almost straight up… or down it is not lost on me that Warner Brothers already has the Batman name on a rollercoaster along with a Superman coaster.

That’s it for today. Here’s to stocks that don't make us queasy and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Crocs, Garmin, and freaking Waiting

Nothing exciting to update today and that is my problem. I spend all this time researching companies, looking at charts, planning my trade, and then finally pushing money into pot then there’s nothing to do but wait and see how the trade turns out. And that sucks. I know what “they” say about over trading your account and commissions eating away at you and all that other stuff that seems to, at times, zap every ounce of fun out of picking stocks and trading. Fine I’ll wait. But it still sucks and I still hate waiting.

Garmin found its way up almost 3% today. Good. About time. I thought we would get something going into earnings that is why I stabbed at it when it was $49. Today is closed at $53.15. The plan is (if) when it hits $54 I’ll throw in a stop and let it play out till earnings. I’m still leaning toward exiting before earnings with a gain. Knock on wood. Waiting.

Crocs took a pause today, slipping almost 2% to end at $56.49. Blame it on Cramer if you need to, it doesn’t matter. I am not too troubled by today’s action. Have you seen CROX’s chart for the past couple of weeks? Earnings will be out soon and I’m thinking that the growth continues at a torrid pace. If the numbers are bad and the stock tanks expect a post shortly after that is titled, “The stupidity of not using stops.” Waiting.

What I need is another company or three to start researching. Something to help pass the time while I’m waiting. The truth is I don’t have anything lined up to go after Garmin. Guess I should be working on that this weekend. Did I mention that I am not particularly fond of waiting?

Have an idea or three on a company I should take a look over let me know. What do you do while you’re waiting to see how your trades turn out?

That’s it for tonight. Here’s to twiddling thumbs and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Crocs, Dora, and Ocean Minded

Crocs has yet to announce an official date for telling us about earnings but Friday the stock acted like blow out numbers had just hit the wire. A big fat 5.85% rise had us sitting at $54.79 for the close. And once again had me Daydreaming about $100.

After half of my position got called away last month I kept feeling that it was a mistake to have let those shares go. So a little hastily I jumped back in on January 30th. I admit I was more interested in getting in than getting a good entry price. My order was filled at $52.50, which for that day looked like a mistake. As the price continued to drop the next day my next order was filled at $50.00 and the previous day’s $52.50 looked like a bigger oops. Those two orders replaced what I had called away only at a much higher price. (Could someone please tell me why Mr. Experience gives the lessons after the test instead of the other way around?)

Besides a new 52 week high last week also brought us interesting press releases. Crocs signed an agreement with Nickelodeon. The deal puts Dora the Explorer and SpongeBob SquarePants on Crocs shoes. From what I have read those will be available this summer in some markets. I think these will sell well to the kids and translate into bottom line dollars for Crocs.

The other big announcement was that Crocs is buying all of Ocean Minded LLC. Looking at Ocean Minded’s website I see they make flip flops. I am along way from an ocean and to tell the truth never heard of the company. I will use the distance excuse rather than admitting that perhaps they design for and target a less experienced (younger) market than myself. Anyway I am guessing that their flops are now going to be made with Croslite, maybe, I haven’t heard. Dora is going to make us some dollars, Ocean Minded I’m not sure about yet.

What is your take on the Nickelodeon and Ocean Minded deals? Can we see $100 by summer?

That’s it for today. Here’s to new 52 week highs and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Garmin, Crocs, and Sandisk take a beating

A beating is perhaps a shade strong. Today was not like an Enron “what the hell just happened” beating but today was enough that I almost titled this post: “The @*#$?! Sky is Falling”. By the end of the day Garmin, Crocs, and Sandisk were all showing red in my account. Crocs was the blue ribbon loser for me today, down 2.82%. Sandisk was a close second falling 2.05% and Garmin tried its best to suck today, down 1.49%. The small sliver of a silver lining was that Garmin stayed above where I bought them the other day. (That small positive note is courtesy of my wife, she always seems to see the bright side of things. With us going on three years of marriage I guess that sunny disposition has rubbed off on me some, probably when I wasn’t looking. )

After the beating today it will be interesting to see how they fair tomorrow. SNDK has earnings next week and CROX should be announcing shortly. What happens in the next few weeks will dictate what I end up doing with those two. Garmin doesn’t show its hand till February 14th. I still don’t know about them, a few of those GRMN shares may end up being carried as a long(er) term holding. It seems that GPS navigation is almost to the point of “have to have”. You know kind of like cable TV. (wink, wink)

Remember having to get UP and change the TV channel, getting letters in the mail from far away friends, and having to finally stop to ask directions when we were “almost” lost. My how cool companies have changed our world.

That’s it for today. Here’s to the market not punching too hard tomorrow and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Crocs Covered Calls Called Certainly

About a month ago I sold January $45 covered calls for $1.40 on half of my Crocs position. Today Crocs closed at $47.95, two days ago it was pushing $52. And there in lies the rub of covered calls. The upside potential is limited by the strike price you pick and the premium you accept. As you can see I clearly left some dollars on the table with this trade… and that happens. It still goes down in the books as a positive outcome. Since only half of my position is being called away it is a little easier to shrug my shoulders at the dollars left on the table. If I had had January $45s on the whole lot of them then tonight I would be more… reflective on my trading decisions. For the shares that I still own the plan is to hold. I still look for good expansion out of Crocs and more money to be made on CROX.

In the end: CROX shares were bought on November 20th and 21st, for an average price of $44.26. December $45 covered calls were sold on November 21st for $1.60. Since they were not called January $45 covered calls were sold on December 21st for $1.40 and were called January 19th.

The math: $45.00 - $44.26 = .74 per share
.74 + $1.60 (Dec) + $1.40 (Jan) = $3.74
$3.74 / $44.26 = 8.45% for right at two months of holding time. (Does not take into account commissions and margin interest paid.)

You can see how it all started (here).

That’s it for today. Here’s to trades with positive outcomes and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Sandisk and Crocs come out swinging

Today is the first day of CES and someone must have liked what they saw and heard from Sandisk. The stock went as high as $45.15 today and finished up nicely at $44.30. Sandisk introduced several new products that should help the bottom line this year. If you didn’t see any of the press announcements on the new products you can get caught up by visiting SNDK’s pressroom. After watching today’s action and hearing all about the new stuff I am glad I found a little more patience when I was ready to throw in the towel. I am not getting too excited right now and still have fingers crossed with earnings right around the corner.

Crocs had a good showing today also. They finished up 2.56% at $44.80. Someone must think they are going to say some really good thinks at the big investor conference that is starting on Wednesday. You have so many people talking fad and one trick pony with this stock. If their new line up of shoes starts doing well then I feel this stock could make me some real money. I am looking forward to what is said on Wednesday, although with earnings right around the corner I don’t feel they will be giving away any secrets.

All in all it does my mood good when both of these stocks start the week off strong.


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Push (trading)

Let me wade right in here. At one point Crocs sprinted up almost 5%. Watching it, I was thinking $50 by Friday and $60 by month’s end. That may be overly optimistic but hey I can attach any number I want when I am daydreaming.

Well it didn’t take much to snap me back to reality. Sandisk is the antidaydreaming stock if there ever was one. At one point Sandisk was down almost 5%. What’s with the 5% stuff today? So my idea of a rise going into CES burst into flames and came crashing down around my head today. To my knowledge there hasn’t been a big press release about anything, so I have no idea what was the driving force today. My lack of understanding doesn't stop the speculation from flying on the boards. Sometimes a little comic relief in the middle of a melt down is healthy. For the record, I am voting against the drop today being the result of “the pros coming after the little guy conspiracy”. But let it drop like this again tomorrow and I might reconsider. What I do know is that it was Ugly today. And I am back to internally questioning my hold decision.

At the close CROX was sitting pretty with a 1.85% increase and Sandisk sat with a 3.04% loss hanging around its neck. Both stocks made their move with above average volume. After having my emotions run in two different directions, like my stocks, it was anticlimactic to have my account finish almost even for the day. Like a stupid push in blackjack today left me a touch unsatisfied.

How do you feel when you end flat neither showing a gain nor a loss for the day’s effort?

That’s it for today. Here’s to not ending flat too often and to keeping an eye on your EveryDay Money.



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CROX daydreaming (trading)

CROX at $100 or something equally eye catching was the title of a thread on one of the boards I frequent. I couldn't resist and wrote back asking what made them think that Crocs could see a $100 by year's end? Awhile later someone put forth their idea, earnings of $2.50 per and a P/E of 40. That would indeed put CROX trading at $100 by year's end. Kind of fun just entertaining such a notion.

Just thinking about that possibility got me off the track of reality and daydreaming for a bit. At a $100 per share that would more than double my investment in a year. I'll take it…if you insist. Next thing I know I am calculating dollar amounts and already picking the next great stock to roll all of that money into. If I could double my money by December 2007 then again in 2008 (surely I can pick another winner… don't you think.) I would have a big O pile by this time come 2008. Perhaps not an eye popping amount for some, but at least an eye stretching sum.

With the market being closed yesterday my daydreams ran amuck for most of the day. CROX at $100 raced around and around the track in my mind. Around and around, compounding faster and faster, I only need one great pick every year that doubles. Then my money doubles EVERY year, seven years from now I could buy a NASCAR stock car. Or anything else that is equally worthy of my investment windfall.


Well the daydream came to a close at today's…um…close. CROX traded up a half percent to finish at the grand total of $42.33 (my investment is still underwater). A long way from $100, a long way from doubling my money every year for the next 7 years. But, the New Year hasn't even officially begun yet.

Have you ever caught yourself daydreaming about how a stock pick might turn out?

That's it for today. Focus on today, dream about tomorrow and keep an eye on your EveryDay Money.

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CROX update (trading)

Just sold January $45 calls on half of my CROX stock. I saw the stock jump up this morning and felt like I need to do something. The Jan. $45 calls were sold for $1.40 per. Truth be told I am looking for them not to be called away come January. They expire January 19th and earnings release will be after that at the end of the month (I think). If they do get called away I figure I will make around 8% on that half of my position in two months. That is fine with me. Still think that the stock will move up after we get the new numbers. I just didn’t feel like sitting on it while it trades sideways for another month. The call premiums from today more than off sets the margin interest for the next month.

Do you use covered calls on any of your holdings?

More later

Paint drying (trading)

Finally I got a whole day off during the week. I planned to watch the market all day. Call me a little money nerd, I’m fine with that. At work I don’t get to see the numbers much. There have been times I have gotten home to find a big move, up or down, and wonder what happened. Not today. This morning I got up about an hour before the market opened, flipped on the computer, got a big glass of Dr. Pepper and settled in. I spent some time looking at Money.com to see if there was anything interesting going on. Spent some time getting caught up on what was being debated on the boards, but mostly just killed time till the opening bell. Truth be told I was looking for something, anything I owned to have a big day. No particular reason I just thought it would be a nice way to fully enjoy my day off.

So what happened today? Nothing. SNDK closed down a few cents (nothing new there) on near anorexic volume. Still dragging my feet. And CROX was just as lackluster to watch. CROX traded in a near perfect flat line pretty much all day. Look at today’s chart, around 1:00 p.m. it looks like someone else got tired of watching too. They hooked up one of those medical defibrillators and tried to shock the crap out of the stock. No luck. All said and done only about half of the 3 month average daily volume traded today.
The good news is I got a day off. The bad news is the market was like watching paint dry.

Given the chance would you watch your stocks for much of the day?

That’s it for today. Here’s to tomorrow being entertaining and I won’t get to watch much. Remember watch the market when you can and keep an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Flashbacks (trading)

As I thought, option expiration day draws to a close and I still have all of my CROX and SNDK. I am down dollars on both positions and ready to make adjustments. SNDK is already on the delete list. I am looking to get out next week, take my modest loss and move on.

Crocs is a little different story. For the past month CROX has shown all the consistency of the girl I dated, long ago, in high school. One day things could not get better and the next she would turn into this chaotic, irrational energy that threatened to propel us both into the abyss. Watching CROX race up yesterday and then drop over 3% today I’ve had all too vivid flashbacks.

Unlike the old girlfriend, my desire to hold Crocs has not changed. I just have decided that with its little tantrums, that always cost me money, I am no longer willing to hold shares that are on margin. Between the banging of the ups and downs and the margin interest clanging everyday it is like insanity in stereo some days. So I will trim down ever so slightly and hold CROX free and clear and wait to see if she can grow up a little. The next few quarters hold great promise, unlike the High School romance I hope Crocs can deliver.

That’s it for today. Here’s to rolling with the punches. Keep your hands up and one eye on your EveryDay Money.

Coming expiration (trading)

So… around 10:00 am my time (11:00 am market time) I don’t see much to get excited about. From the look of it, I figured, today may shape up to be like yesterday. A little underwelmed was one way I would describe how I was feel this morning. In between work, I get a quick look in the afternoon. $44 plus. Hitting refresh was the first thing I did thinking my browser must have a glitch. Nope. Seems that a bunch of good reports came out and some other companies reported solid numbers and everyone came a running dollars in hand. A fat 2.57% up for the day, worth getting out of bed for.

With today’s run being called out tomorrow on my December $45s is now a real possibility. Maybe not a great chance but a greater chance than there was yesterday. If I get called out that would cut my position in Crocs in half. Not sure how I feel about that right now. If half gets called away I don’t plan on writing covered calls on the remaining shares. Continued growth; that is what I am still betting on going into the New Year. The new spring line has made me believe the company understands the need to diversify its product line look and appeal. Building a brand is never an easy thing to do and I am willing to give this management some more time to see how they do.

If half of my stock becomes cash going into next week I am not sure where I would put it next. Unfortunately a few days ago when I mentioned Garmin I didn’t have the reach to get a few shares. Now with them sitting $53.44 I’ll wait. But it won’t really matter unless CROX finishes tomorrow over $45.

That’s it for today. For those of you sitting with options hope tomorrow goes the way you need it. Remember to keep an eye on your EveryDay Money.

Crocs Spring line pics (trading)

Here is a link (Crocs Spring line) to the new Crocs shoes for the Spring and Summer. Good to see the company expanding the look of their offerings. I think that these will attract an even wider range of customers and should help keep sales strong. But will it keep sales strong enough to move the stock up and pacify the nay sayers? Only time will tell. Let me know what you think about the new looks.

More later.

When it rains it pours (trading)

Today it rained buckets of goodness as both my SNDK and CROX took off running. My confidence was climbing with every tandem up tick. I will admit my excitement was somewhat tempered by the memory of yesterday (see A kick in the teeth). But still by the end of the day Sandisk’s 3%, that’s a nice fat 3%, rise on good volume was a really nice sight to see. Almost Pavlov like I see green and feel smart. When the numbers turn red I feel dumb. Maybe it’s only me?

I would like to send out a big Thank You to all that watched the ticks, fingers crossed, this whole day while I worked. Your positive thoughts and mojo directed at Sandisk (SNDK) did not go unnoticed. With that said it does make me wonder where all of you were yesterday?

As for Crocs (CROX) they finished a nice 1.70% up ($43.05). It was reported that they introduced their Spring line-up at some conference thing yesterday. I still haven’t been able to find pictures of the new shoes. With half of my shares having Dec. 45s calls sold against them (see Ugly Shoes) I am starting to think I might lose them next Friday. Not sure how I feel about that possibility right now.

That’s it for today. Here’s good luck to all of you trying to get ahead tomorrow. Until then keep your eye on your
EveryDay Money.

Green is good (trading)

What a nice close today to see SNDK and CROX both in the green. Perhaps Mom was right about playing nice with others (see Momma said… & pound of sorry entries for the beginning of that story).

Volume wasn’t that terrific for CROX today, but still an up day is an up day. I think, for the record, that with the large amounts that institutions hold and all the shares that are shorted we will not see much of anything in either direction until some kind of sales numbers are reported. Or at least leaked.

Nobody really knows which way this is going to go yet. We are all just trying to guess right. I am still holding long thinking positive things about positive numbers. Just guessing again, I think the deal with the University Crocs will far out strip the Disney deal at least in the U.S. Overseas I give the edge to the Disney Crocs.

A reminder to cast your vote in the poll (Hang On)

That’s it for today. Here’s to seeing another up day tomorrow. Until then keep your eye on your EveryDay Money.

A few pounds of sorry

My Mom always told me to play nice with the other kids and not say bad things about them. Yesterday I took a poke at the Nollenberger Capital analyst and his Buy rating (see yesterday's Momma said... post.) It was all in fun, but like my Mom used to tell me, “What goes around, comes around.” She was right. I made fun of his Buy rating last night and today CROX falls off the cliff. (2.82% DOWN)

So here goes. Nollenberger Guy I’m sorry for suggesting that your Buy rating caused our beloved company to finish in the red yesterday.

Now with that settled I am fairly certain that we will be on the positive side come Monday’s close. Sleep tight longs.

That’s it for today. Play nice with others and keep your eye on your EveryDay Money.


P.S. Don’t forget to give your vote on the poll (Hang On) a couple of posts down from here. Thanks.

Momma said there'll be days like this

When the market finally closed and the last blinking numbers came across the ticker I wonder if the Nollenberger Capital guy thought he might have trouble hitting water if he were to fall out of a boat? This Nollenberger Capital guy initiated coverage on the shoe guys (CROX) today with a BUY rating to start. Does the market give this guy any love? Nope. CROX closes in the RED. Although in fairness it was down only .69% and on volume less than their 3 month average. But still, it was a BUY rating. Momma said there’ll be days like this… I can hear tonight’s dinner conversation already:

Wife: “Hi honey. How was your day?

Nollenberger Guy: “Well, I started coverage on the company that makes those shoes you like so much. Started them with a BUY rating.”

Wife: “That’s great! Those shoes are so comfortable. You know they come with Disney characters now right? Well anyway what did everyone think about your BUY rating?”

Nollenberger Guy: “The market said, “Shut-up!”


That's it for today. Nollenberger guy keep your head up there is alway tomorrow. Until then keep your eye on your EverDay Money